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No Image
User id CG3 March 17th 2015
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Forum rating 45.54
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THE EURO DECLINE AND POLICY OBJECTIVES EXPLAINED IN LAYMAN'S TERMS.


This is my attempt to explain the Euro situation in a clear way.

Deflation is not welcome in any investment situation, as if a factory is set up at a cost 900million and the next year it is worth 800 million, and the goods are selling for less, then no investors would want to commit.

Hence moderate INFLATION is GOOD in the Eurozone thinking plan, this is the key point.

So Mario Draghi has used the tools at his disposal when he printed a "modest amount" of QE AND purchased more bad debt from weak countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece.

This has "worked" there is now a small positive inflation and returns on government bonds have shown a small increase. Growth in the Eurozone remains sluggish, which is normal for the southern Eurozone which has a history of very low growth apart when there were bubbles.
Will the lower Euro help the Euro countries? Well only Germany has an economy geared around exports, so is it a coincidence that the Bundesbank have given Draghi the go ahead to print and buy even more bad debt at a time when their economy is flirting with recession?
For most of the Eurozone it will be business as usual, exports are generally around the 10% level of the GDP and they will not be able to generate export lead growth.

The tension in this deal is due to the fact that there are very disparate economies in the Eurozone and political union is a still a long way off. Some transfer of assets from the prosperous North to the weaker Southern countries will be essential for some time and despite political opposition in Germany has actually happened - Look at the Target 2 imbalance diagram I have added below.

What is Target2?
Well it is simply an interbank payment system used by European central banks to implement the European monetary policy, it has an additional advantage in that credits created by the ECB create less political pressure than direct loans, Greece has been kept alive in this way recently.

In a nutshell Germany seems set on keeping the Eurozone intact because their bill for funding PIGS debt is clearly much cheaper than what it stands to lose under a strong Euro that would be the result if they allow the PIGS countries to flee.
It was not intended to be a club that you can leave easily otherwise we would see a repeat of Soros betting against the pound as he did in September 1992 but this time picking off the weakest Euro states.

The future for the Euro is clearly intended to be continued low growth rates, and more transfers to the "PIGS" countries - Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.
The Euro maybe slightly over sold at present but its fundamentals do look weak until the PIGS recover.
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No Image
User id RM1 April 7th 2015
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One friend of mine told me that one of the reasons the Euro was devised was to reduce the likelyhood of war in European union countries, so if that is true one can say that it worked quite well as we have not had a major conflict since the one in Bosnia back in 1992- 1995 I think. If war is defined as violence and death and invasions then it is true to say that the Euro "worked", but if war is defined as one or two countries doing really well when many other countries are crippled with debts then maybe it hasnt worked so well at all? It is easy to say that the Germans have done very well with it and become envious and critical of their huge progress since their low point during the 1930's but on the other hand having met many Germans I notice that they tend to work very hard, have innovative minds and are very good at business. Of course they also make machines that seem to last forever, being a former engineer I notice quality when I see it and my Miele washing machine is still running perfectly after more than 23 years of use. My BMW engine after some 280,000 miles still has the original honing marks inside the cylinders! (This indicates that the wear caused by the pistons going up and down many millions of time times is so minute that it has not worn more than 2 thousands of an inch, which is the approximate depth of the honing machines scratches ) They just really do have an excellent understanding of metals and treatment of metals, engineering and machinery which the rest of the world struggles to emulate. People that work hard, research, grow, share ideas tend to fare much better than those who sit around playing cards and drinking beer all day.









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